09-09-2018, 09:51 PM
The weather models seem to be in better agreement that it will be making landfall in southern North Carolina, as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 140 to 150 mph winds.
If it does, it will be the strongest hurricane striking The US mainland that far north, since record keeping began.
Obviously, where the core of the storm makes landfall at the coast, the storm surge is going to be extreme, as the storm will have been moving in the same general direction for a thousand miles, pushing a wall of water in front of it, with large groundswells aiding raising the sea level along the coasts and back bays. If it strikes at high tide, the barrier islands will be getting extra smeared, as it is also to strike near a New moon, and the tides swing largest a few days around the new or full moon, and the new moon is tonight and the very peak tide extremes seem to happen a day or two after.
140 mile an hour winds are no joke either, but most of the damage comes from the storm surge, but this storm is going to take a while to wind down once over land, and hurricane force winds and tropical storm force can be expected in a huge radius outside the central core as it does. not to mention the likelyhood of tornadoes too.
After landfall, they expect the steering currents to collapse, and it could just sit over the Applachians and dump and dump rain and more rain while it winds down and some models are predicting 2 feet of rain. This could reach into tenessee and
Obviously this forecast is not written in stone, the storm is a long ways off, weather forecasting is educated guessing with heavy reliance on the models.
For those wanting to know all the influencing variables that they can forsee at this point, check out the Videos by this guy, which are updated daily when there are tropical threats. Much more in depth than any other sources i am aware of.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
There is a pretty good weather blog over at Weatherunderground that gets crazy busy when storms are approaching land.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
During Matthew and Irma, there were guys driving around live stormcasting video, and trying to be in the thickest part of the storm. I found the links on the WU/cat6 blog and was pretty much glued to the laptop.
The Media is no doubt going to go into a frenzy,as they always do, and I know when Matthew kind of fell apart before strafing the Florida coast, that many who prepared and got very little of the storm were then reluctant to prepare when Irma too was threatening.
The Forecast for Irma began looking worse and worse where My parents live in Florida on the SW coast, and I convinced them to go to central Florida to stay with my sister, and the storm was actually worse where they went, but Florida lucked out on that one too as Cuba's north coast robbed a bunch of energy from it, and it did not strafe the whole west coast with the eastern Eyewall, which would have been catastrophic.
The Carolinas are hoping some dry air intrusion works its way into the storm before landfall to weaken it as much as possible, and some sort of steering currents pick it up and move it along so it does not linger and do what Harvey did to Texas.
The forecast almost seems as bad as possible right now for NC and the general area, but Noone can really say what is going to happen, better to be overprepared and deal with a fraction of the predicted doom, than blow it off as typical Doomcasted media frenzy, and find that some sort of biblical deluge to actually be happening.
As far as hunkering down in the path, I guess i would seek some higher land that will not flood, find the lee of a strong building to hide out of the wind, and take down my framed panel and be fully stocked with food water and fuel, and Beer.
But If I were in the carolina's I would be leaving the coastline perhaps Tuesday night, driving south to some coastline a good distance South of the storm center where the winds would be blowing offshore and the surf pumping. I think Northern/central Florida would be the call on this one, but Long Island and Rhode island are going to have a period of very good swell and offshores too.
it seems the Out to Sea Ideal path of this storm is unlikely. Millions of people in the path of this storm are going to be a bit more than inconvenienced, I venture.
The carribean will likely be dealing with hurricane Issiac by then, and there is something brewing in the western Carribean which miught be in the gulf of mexico and a Threat to Texas in the near future too.
Keep in mind that tropical systems in the western Gulf of Mexico seem to always spike fuel prices nationwide, So filling up the tank soon might save a few bucks.
If it does, it will be the strongest hurricane striking The US mainland that far north, since record keeping began.
Obviously, where the core of the storm makes landfall at the coast, the storm surge is going to be extreme, as the storm will have been moving in the same general direction for a thousand miles, pushing a wall of water in front of it, with large groundswells aiding raising the sea level along the coasts and back bays. If it strikes at high tide, the barrier islands will be getting extra smeared, as it is also to strike near a New moon, and the tides swing largest a few days around the new or full moon, and the new moon is tonight and the very peak tide extremes seem to happen a day or two after.
140 mile an hour winds are no joke either, but most of the damage comes from the storm surge, but this storm is going to take a while to wind down once over land, and hurricane force winds and tropical storm force can be expected in a huge radius outside the central core as it does. not to mention the likelyhood of tornadoes too.
After landfall, they expect the steering currents to collapse, and it could just sit over the Applachians and dump and dump rain and more rain while it winds down and some models are predicting 2 feet of rain. This could reach into tenessee and
Obviously this forecast is not written in stone, the storm is a long ways off, weather forecasting is educated guessing with heavy reliance on the models.
For those wanting to know all the influencing variables that they can forsee at this point, check out the Videos by this guy, which are updated daily when there are tropical threats. Much more in depth than any other sources i am aware of.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
There is a pretty good weather blog over at Weatherunderground that gets crazy busy when storms are approaching land.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
During Matthew and Irma, there were guys driving around live stormcasting video, and trying to be in the thickest part of the storm. I found the links on the WU/cat6 blog and was pretty much glued to the laptop.
The Media is no doubt going to go into a frenzy,as they always do, and I know when Matthew kind of fell apart before strafing the Florida coast, that many who prepared and got very little of the storm were then reluctant to prepare when Irma too was threatening.
The Forecast for Irma began looking worse and worse where My parents live in Florida on the SW coast, and I convinced them to go to central Florida to stay with my sister, and the storm was actually worse where they went, but Florida lucked out on that one too as Cuba's north coast robbed a bunch of energy from it, and it did not strafe the whole west coast with the eastern Eyewall, which would have been catastrophic.
The Carolinas are hoping some dry air intrusion works its way into the storm before landfall to weaken it as much as possible, and some sort of steering currents pick it up and move it along so it does not linger and do what Harvey did to Texas.
The forecast almost seems as bad as possible right now for NC and the general area, but Noone can really say what is going to happen, better to be overprepared and deal with a fraction of the predicted doom, than blow it off as typical Doomcasted media frenzy, and find that some sort of biblical deluge to actually be happening.
As far as hunkering down in the path, I guess i would seek some higher land that will not flood, find the lee of a strong building to hide out of the wind, and take down my framed panel and be fully stocked with food water and fuel, and Beer.
But If I were in the carolina's I would be leaving the coastline perhaps Tuesday night, driving south to some coastline a good distance South of the storm center where the winds would be blowing offshore and the surf pumping. I think Northern/central Florida would be the call on this one, but Long Island and Rhode island are going to have a period of very good swell and offshores too.
it seems the Out to Sea Ideal path of this storm is unlikely. Millions of people in the path of this storm are going to be a bit more than inconvenienced, I venture.
The carribean will likely be dealing with hurricane Issiac by then, and there is something brewing in the western Carribean which miught be in the gulf of mexico and a Threat to Texas in the near future too.
Keep in mind that tropical systems in the western Gulf of Mexico seem to always spike fuel prices nationwide, So filling up the tank soon might save a few bucks.
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