09-06-2018, 09:51 PM
It is still a week away form possible impact with the East coast.
One should not trust weather models this far out, and no Doubt the media is going to be in frenzy mode.
But,
The weather Models, Euro(EWMCF) and GFS are in farily good agreement, which I find surprising, a week out, though the Euro has it making landfall in the OBX, turning and the pulling offshore the Delmarva and doing a Loop, while the GFS keeps it offshore, then doing a loop offshore the NE coast as an extremely large hurricane by the end of the model runs.
Should be noted that the Euro model forecast Sandy's left turn into NJ 5 days before impact and 2.5 days before the other weather models agreed.
If I were on the east coast I'd be greedily and selfishly eager for the swell event.
i used to chase tropical swells to the OBX and then northward, and if I were there now with sufficient funds, I would be making plans to do the same for this one.
San Diego was receiving some small tropical swell from Hurricane Olivia today, and yesterday there was also swell, which was unforecast but might have been a tropical pulse from hurricane Norman. I love that Summer is over, both days i basically surfed alone and had a blast.
If Olivia had followed the intensity forecasts, there would have been little to no Swell reaching here.
Weather forecasting of tropical systems is still unreliable and more so than other storms.
One should not trust weather models this far out, and no Doubt the media is going to be in frenzy mode.
But,
The weather Models, Euro(EWMCF) and GFS are in farily good agreement, which I find surprising, a week out, though the Euro has it making landfall in the OBX, turning and the pulling offshore the Delmarva and doing a Loop, while the GFS keeps it offshore, then doing a loop offshore the NE coast as an extremely large hurricane by the end of the model runs.
Should be noted that the Euro model forecast Sandy's left turn into NJ 5 days before impact and 2.5 days before the other weather models agreed.
If I were on the east coast I'd be greedily and selfishly eager for the swell event.
i used to chase tropical swells to the OBX and then northward, and if I were there now with sufficient funds, I would be making plans to do the same for this one.
San Diego was receiving some small tropical swell from Hurricane Olivia today, and yesterday there was also swell, which was unforecast but might have been a tropical pulse from hurricane Norman. I love that Summer is over, both days i basically surfed alone and had a blast.
If Olivia had followed the intensity forecasts, there would have been little to no Swell reaching here.
Weather forecasting of tropical systems is still unreliable and more so than other storms.