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Hurrincane Florence
#1
It is still a week away form possible impact with the East coast.

One should not trust weather models this far out, and no Doubt the media is going to be in frenzy mode.

But,

 The weather Models, Euro(EWMCF) and GFS are in farily good agreement, which I find surprising, a week out, though the Euro has it making landfall in the OBX, turning and the pulling offshore the Delmarva and doing a Loop, while the GFS keeps it offshore, then doing a loop offshore the NE coast as an extremely large hurricane by the end of the model runs.

Should be noted that the Euro  model forecast Sandy's left turn into NJ 5 days before impact and 2.5 days before the other weather models agreed.

If I were on the east coast I'd be  greedily and selfishly eager for the swell event.

i used to chase tropical swells to the OBX and then northward, and if I were there now with sufficient funds, I would be making plans to do the same for this one.

San Diego was receiving some small tropical swell from Hurricane Olivia today, and yesterday there was also swell, which was unforecast but might have been a tropical pulse from hurricane Norman.  I love that Summer is over, both days i basically surfed alone and had a blast.

If Olivia had followed the intensity forecasts, there would have been little to no Swell reaching here.

Weather forecasting of tropical systems is still unreliable and more so than other storms.
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#2
If I was still driving the big truck I'd be making plans for a water haul to the potential affected areas. Seems like every hurricane that hit I was hauling water from Anheuser-Busch to where ever it could be distributed from.
  [Image: 414097000.jpg]
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#3
(09-07-2018, 06:21 AM)Motrukdriver Wrote: If I was still driving the big truck I'd be making plans for a water haul to the potential affected areas.  Seems like every hurricane that hit I was hauling water from Anheuser-Busch to where ever it could be distributed from.

In another life...

"Eastbound and down rolling out and truckin We're gonna do what they say can't be done..."

Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin Big Grin
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#4
One of my Friends who lives in S Carolina was supposed to fly here next Thursday. Still might, or he might be running around prepping for the possible impending doom which he has had to deal with every year for the last 2 or 3 with irma and Matthew.

The models are still all over the place, but it is looking more like landfall is likely, rather than the out to sea ideal.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5de...=600&h=485

if some moderator cares to properly Spell hurneycan in the thread title, it would not be unappreciated.
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#5
Here in North Carolina people are talking about it at the local grocery store (Food Lion), cashiers griping about their hours and shifts being changed to prepare for the mass buying to come.

Reminds me of my dearly departed grandmother who during the “sugar scare” of the 70’s, told my grandfather to go to the store and “buy 50 pounds of sugar before the hoarders get it”...  Tongue
Course she used sugar in nearly everything...

On a more serious note, since the last really bad NC hurricane was Floyd in 1999, most people have forgotten that for most inland areas it’s the flooding, not the winds, that is the main issue.

I’m staying with my son and even in smaller tropical storms the roads into his development are 1-2 feet submerged and take a couple days to dry off... so yes I now have 3 cases of water and about 20 cans of food plus matches, candles etc...  If a person is not mobile, then they’d better pay attention to the news. Otherwise, in this case, ”go West young man...”
They say when you get older two things happen, one is you lose your memory and the other, I forget.

We have enough youth. How about a fountain of smart?
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  • AbuelaLoca (09-12-2018)
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#6
The weather models seem to be in better agreement that it will be making landfall in southern North Carolina, as a strong Category 4 hurricane with 140 to 150 mph winds.

If it does, it will be the strongest hurricane striking The US mainland that far north, since record keeping began.

Obviously, where the core of the storm makes landfall at the coast, the storm surge is going to be extreme, as the storm will have been moving in the same general direction for a thousand miles, pushing a wall of water in front of it, with large groundswells aiding raising the sea level along the coasts and back bays. If it strikes at high tide, the barrier islands will be getting extra smeared, as it is also to strike near a New moon, and the tides swing largest a few days around the new or full moon, and the new moon is tonight and the very peak tide extremes seem to happen a day or two after.

140 mile an hour winds are no joke either, but most of the damage comes from the storm surge, but this storm is going to take a while to wind down once over land, and hurricane force winds and tropical storm force can be expected in a huge radius outside the central core as it does. not to mention the likelyhood of tornadoes too.

After landfall, they expect the steering currents to collapse, and it could just sit over the Applachians and dump and dump rain and more rain while it winds down and some models are predicting 2 feet of rain. This could reach into tenessee and

Obviously this forecast is not written in stone, the storm is a long ways off, weather forecasting is educated guessing with heavy reliance on the models.

For those wanting to know all the influencing variables that they can forsee at this point, check out the Videos by this guy, which are updated daily when there are tropical threats. Much more in depth than any other sources i am aware of.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

There is a pretty good weather blog over at Weatherunderground that gets crazy busy when storms are approaching land.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

During Matthew and Irma, there were guys driving around live stormcasting video, and trying to be in the thickest part of the storm. I found the links on the WU/cat6 blog and was pretty much glued to the laptop.

The Media is no doubt going to go into a frenzy,as they always do, and I know when Matthew kind of fell apart before strafing the Florida coast, that many who prepared and got very little of the storm were then reluctant to prepare when Irma too was threatening.

The Forecast for Irma began looking worse and worse where My parents live in Florida on the SW coast, and I convinced them to go to central Florida to stay with my sister, and the storm was actually worse where they went, but Florida lucked out on that one too as Cuba's north coast robbed a bunch of energy from it, and it did not strafe the whole west coast with the eastern Eyewall, which would have been catastrophic.

The Carolinas are hoping some dry air intrusion works its way into the storm before landfall to weaken it as much as possible, and some sort of steering currents pick it up and move it along so it does not linger and do what Harvey did to Texas.

The forecast almost seems as bad as possible right now for NC and the general area, but Noone can really say what is going to happen, better to be overprepared and deal with a fraction of the predicted doom, than blow it off as typical Doomcasted media frenzy, and find that some sort of biblical deluge to actually be happening.

As far as hunkering down in the path, I guess i would seek some higher land that will not flood, find the lee of a strong building to hide out of the wind, and take down my framed panel and be fully stocked with food water and fuel, and Beer.

But If I were in the carolina's I would be leaving the coastline perhaps Tuesday night, driving south to some coastline a good distance South of the storm center where the winds would be blowing offshore and the surf pumping. I think Northern/central Florida would be the call on this one, but Long Island and Rhode island are going to have a period of very good swell and offshores too.

it seems the Out to Sea Ideal path of this storm is unlikely. Millions of people in the path of this storm are going to be a bit more than inconvenienced, I venture.

The carribean will likely be dealing with hurricane Issiac by then, and there is something brewing in the western Carribean which miught be in the gulf of mexico and a Threat to Texas in the near future too.

Keep in mind that tropical systems in the western Gulf of Mexico seem to always spike fuel prices nationwide, So filling up the tank soon might save a few bucks.
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  • Vesper (09-10-2018), Cammalu (09-10-2018), TrainChaser (09-10-2018), AbuelaLoca (09-12-2018)
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#7
Over night, the european model has it coming ashore further north...near the outer banks.

It seems to be bending to the north now... if correct, it will put my friend on the south side of it.

Will mean a lot more rain for Pennsylvania...which really cannot take any more.



1989 Honeywell motorhome
Ford E350 chassis.  460 engine
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#8
Just speaking to our nomadic bunch that live on wheels.
Homes on wheels are your best defense!
Leave now and head far out of any possible path.
Why deal with the crowds of traffic that flee at the last minute ?
Stay Tuned
rvpopeye



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  • Everyroadleadshome (09-14-2018)
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#9
The storm is expected to grow to a much larger diameter by the time it makes landfall. Certainly being on the south side of the storm is more desirable than the north, but the exact track of the center should not be the main concentration.

Its my opinion onle those on the immediate coast need to hope to be on the south side of the eye, as at least the surge from the ocean will be less there.

But the Outerbanks, the pamlico sound can surge in fron the wast on the south side of the storm, and the shape of those islands and the shallow water depth on that side of them can make the backside concentrated surge a huge threat as well.

This storm has the potential to be devastating to a huge area, not just from wind damage or storm surge, but the fact that it can dump 2 feet of rain well inland, on presaturated soils.

Florence's Fury will likely be historic in proportion, if the forecast holds true. Hopefully it injests some dry air and weakens before landfall. That seems to be the only hope, as the out to sea possibility keeps getting lower
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#10
Well I left the desert SW to come out here and be with family, so I get to experience my very first hurricane... At least I won’t be stuck in the Prius, although having the Prius generator available in case the grid goes down will be a help. I got a small 120 watt inverter to help recharge phones and tablets, as well as elect shavers and the like. That’s all the ciggy plug can handle and I don’t want to wire up a 400 watt inverter to the AGM start battery as I don’t see any real advantage.

That was a good link, the guy is a weather nerd I guess.
They say when you get older two things happen, one is you lose your memory and the other, I forget.

We have enough youth. How about a fountain of smart?
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