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+--- Thread: Dorian doomcasting (/thread-3161.html)
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Dorian doomcasting - sternwake - 08-30-2019
I'm a bit of a weather nerd, among other types of nerd.
Been closely watching satellite presentation of hurricane Dorian the last few hours as it undergoes rapid intensification.
It's currently A small storm traversing waters with high heat content and little to no wind shear, or other inhibiting factors, and its blowing up.
Weather models have been slowing it and having it turn northward either on the florida coast or just before.
But they nor I nor anybody really knows.
The most recent EWMCF/ Euro weather model has it paralleling the coast from florida through the OBX of North carolina, growing in size and maintaining intensity. The New GFS model has it making landfall before turning north.
i have family In florida and those closest to the east coast are reporting the worst of human behavior regarding getting supplies ahead of the storm like previous storms.
Also it appears that a lot of people who prepared hard For Irma and Matthew the previous years, only to see a small fraction of the predicted dooom to occur, are not bothering to prepare much at all with this one.
Weather forecasting is like trying to predict the future and having less clues than ordinary events, and humans love to make bold precidtions and later be proved right, with a snarky (I told you so), as humans are basically insecure halfwits constantly trying to get an Attay-boy/girl.
I'd like to see this storm become the strongest ever recorded in this basin, and stay safely offshore.
Who knows what will actually happen.
Nobody knows but future history class, and they will point out exactly how dumb everybody was beforehand.
RE: Dorian doomcasting - TWIH - 08-30-2019
This one seems for real. If you are in Fl or Ga and mobile you should leave. Its stupid to take the chance.
Even if it stays offshore (unlikely), the amount of flooding is going to be severe.
I’m in NC and I only expect moderate rain, if that.
RE: Dorian doomcasting - Queen - 08-30-2019
I’ve been through five hurricanes in Florida, including Andrew, I’m also a weather geek. From the geek standpoint they are completely fascinating, from a lived through it standpoint they range from interesting to terrifying. Hurricane parties are fun but a bit manic, and now, at close to 60, I’d just leave and let the young/brave/crazy ride it out.
RE: Dorian doomcasting - sternwake - 08-30-2019
This guys assessment is likely far superior to any other, and he is basically saying, we don't know, steering currents are going to be so weak that small chamnges in them will ahve huge consequences on the eventual track.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
RE: Dorian doomcasting - rvpopeye - 08-30-2019
The following is the opinion of the Weirdo Overlord and should be considered accordingly.....
If there are wheels under your house , why wouldn't anybody drive out of the way ?
Not much different than driving south to avoid winter's crap.
Less stress and a good excuse for a road trip !
Stress makes you old , and if you're already old.........
Leave now , take the scenic route ,,,,before the million idiots panic pile outta dodge.
It's already a holiday weekend....
RE: Dorian doomcasting - sternwake - 08-30-2019
We, can be, and should be thankful the rest of the population does not live on wheels.
The more, the more brutal, in my book.
Merrier, my ass.
I predict the mere repetition of the phrase 'hunkering down' by the media, in the next few days, if i could handle anythng mainstream, and be foolish enough to subject myself to it
would make me go postal.
Whats great about a rolling man cave, is in traffic jams, I can pull off the next exit park and wait for the nimrods to get where they are going, then continue on at 65mph. With a hurricane evac order in place it might take 3 hours to get to that next exit and that traffic will never abate until the storm hits, if then.
If I were in the path of a Cat 5 in Florida, I'd like to park atop one of the barrrier island bridges with a 10K LB canvass strap holding the van planted at the apex, and play flight of the valykeries at max volume. Perhaps some Mussorgsky when Wagner got old.
RE: Dorian doomcasting - CatPerson - 08-30-2019
I mainly just listen to that news with one ear and less attention. Most of the people there don't seem to be all that bright, and aren't capable of learning from past experience.
If you live in hurricane country, why don't you just keep preps there all the time? Why eat the storage food as soon as the nasty season passes? Dump the old bottled water into the washing machine before the new season hits, and re-supply. If you've got a house on wheels, don't wait until it's lined up to strike before you leave. Get the generator, and DON'T take it back to HD this time; crank it up once a month, and you're good for the next ones.
I once asked an acquaintance from FL why the people there always seem to wait until the last minute. She just sat there with a dumb-cow expression on her face, shrugged, and said, "That's just what we always do".
It won't happen to us. It won't happen to us. It won't...... Oh, SHIT! HELP!
And the politicians know they have request help from the military, and it usually takes at least three days to get them moving. Dum de dum dum... DUMB!
RE: Dorian doomcasting - RoamerRV428 - 08-31-2019
better safe than sorry.
it is best to know something might be coming your way then not to know and wham ya get nailed bad.
hubby and I will be extreme coastal dwellers in the future. The beach is out thing and I already told him if I hear a hurricane 'might' be coming, keys in ignition and gonzo before all the others might decide to leave. If it is nothing then we went on a wander for fun and change of scenery
if the big one hits the coast then we saved ourselves early.predicting the weather, that is what it is, predictions! they tell ya the best they can with what they got then mother nature does whatever the hell she wants
who is always right on the weather, mother nature, lol
RE: Dorian doomcasting - Everyroadleadshome - 08-31-2019
The general public is so quick to forget, dozens of weather events that have been very severe in the last few years alone, news coverage of areas wiped off the map and people still don't take the necessary precautions before a potential looming big storm.
I've always assumed it's our herding nature, most of the population stays put. If a larger percent of the population heeds warnings and starts to evac, others will follow.
RE: Dorian doomcasting - TWIH - 08-31-2019
In general, people are, well, kinda’ dumb about these matters. Combine that with “it won’t happen to me” and typical bravado “I’ll be fine”...
While some of the “doomcasting” can be excessive hype for viewership, I’d rather not be caught in long freeway lines with no gas and nothing to eat.