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Dorian doomcasting
The latest official forecast has it turning N then NE well before reaching florida than mostly parallelling the coast offshore enough upto the OBX where it gets close.

This turn is due to a predicted trough reaching down from Appalachia to grab it and sling it north then north east while the High pressure north and east of it continues to fade.

2 of the three hurricane hunter planes which go and collect data from around the storm are out of commission with busted windshields, and as a result only one plane is flying, and there is less data collected less often from around the storm than there should be for a CAt 5 on course and relatively close to the mainland USA

The remaining viable hurricane hunter plane near the storm right now, and not long ago it dropped a dropsonde north of the storm and found higher than expected pressures, this high pressure which has turned it to the west and increased its forward speed slightly, can now likely force it west longer and slightly faster, meaning that turn which the latest NHC track has it about 85miles offshore, could happen much closer to the coast, IF, it happens.

Since the latest official forecast came out 1.5 hours ago, making the next one 6.5 hours away, there could be a whole bunch of false relief going on on the east coast of Florida right now. If it continued west for 72 more hours at current rate it would eb very close to the florida coast , but with the new readings of the air recon hurricane hunter planes it is expected the storm will pick up speed slightly.

The weak predicted and yet to occur to developing trough reaching down to lift it N then NE out to sea also has to occur for the official track centerline to be remotely valid

I think the latest official NHC 'safely out to sea' track is irresponsible in light of lacking Data, and the fact that a strong ass storm is going to be in extremely weak steering currents. Sure the cone of uncertainty still covers most of Florida but 3/4 of the people who were freaking out yesterday, are getting drunk now thinking they are safe, my sister among them.

This Effer can still go anywhere it damn well pleases, and it either is or is on the verge of a CAT 5 storm at the moment. A few MPH hardly makes much difference, 150mph currently makes it a cat 4, vs 156mph for a cat 5.

Its right there with hotter water ahead of it and incomplete data entered into the models that predict its track and lacking conclusive data besides satellite appearance on the last 5pm ATL update to call it a cat 5, due to 2 of those 3 hurricane hunter planes being out of commission.

If the 11Pm AST official update moves the center of the track back over the coastline, will the partyiers drink heavier or lay off sober up?

Right, they wont even know until the morning, late morning that things have changed.
[-] The following 1 user says Thank You to sternwake for this post:
  • TWIH (09-01-2019)
Well the minute by minute news coverage (which just repeats over and over) is still saying it turns N and bounces along the coast, or slightly out to sea. Good for most of Fl, not so great for Ga and SC, and the OBX like you mentioned.

You are right that many will brush it off and get wasted, thinking they’ve dodged another one. Whats weird is that if you have lived in Fl for several years you “should” have figured out what to do as far as basic prepping yet the tv news shows so many residents are clueless, buying out store shelves like there’s no tomorrow cause they didn’t have anything. Maybe they are new residents or maybe just uh, “permanently uninformed”.

It did cause me to open my one box of e-rats and note that: The granola boxes are expired (Apr 19), the canned goods are still ok for another year, and I forgot to put an alum foil base or glass container for the long burning candles. Being in a bedroom I have the “luxury” of space that a van dweller might not have, 2.5 cases of water add up!

In a week it will all be history and we can go back to “it never happened to me” land.
They say when you get older two things happen, one is you lose your memory and the other, I forget.

We have enough youth. How about a fountain of smart?
160 mph cat 5......

A few dropsondes just registered 190f just above surface. But likely gusts accellerated by 50 foot waves.

The models.have moved track closer to.florida. it is still plowing west at 10 but nearly stall. Later today....Then drift for 24 hours. Then get picked up. The timing of that stall is.fairly crucial.

Hope they're right. Highly Suspect they're wrong.
what is the fascination with weather for so many......I mean beyond alerts and such. People just love love love big destructive natural storms? I know I love a monster thunderstorm and lightening...heck we would go out in the garage when younger with Dad and set up chairs and sit and watch it all and Ewww and Ahhh over it all Smile
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Watching the sheer power of the lightning as it takes over the sky and hearing the thunder boom‘s that often accompany it are to me, enjoyable, but I don’t think there’s anything enjoyable about watching the hurricane if you’re in the middle of it.

The statement above of - moves at 10 mph then drifts for 24 hours pretty well describes me.
They say when you get older two things happen, one is you lose your memory and the other, I forget.

We have enough youth. How about a fountain of smart?
AAhh very true. I get ya on sheer power of what is hitting you at the time.

Hail is a biggie and so bad for farmers and more. damage is amazing from it. every time hail comes here I just pray my trucks etc come thru it all Smile ugh

there is watching a fun big storm and there is praying thru a bigger terror
3 Stinkin' Badges, YARC, Cat Ass Trophy, ROOIRIA Wannabe
My fascination with extreme weather is purely selfish, as is my main pursuit and source of pleasure, riding waves.

East coast summers, when I learned how to ride waves as a pre teen, are usually pretty dismal in the amount of wave energy there is available to ride.

When a tropical system would form and traverse into an area to give us waves without the weather, it was a potential break in the monotony of tourists, idiots, and summer jobs, which were often blown off completely when conditions came together.

Back in the day at :48 after the hour I'd run to check the weather channel's tropical update, hoping for something, try to figure out when it might be good, several days ahead so sessions could be planned and a tingle of hopeful excitement planted.

When older with a car, I'd sometimes drive overnight down to the outerbanks to meet a hurricane swell and then get stuck in the evacuation traffic jam a few days later, completely satiated, noodle armed, sunburnt, and with memories to last a lifetime., and return jobless and with Zero regrets about that.

Obviously surfers merely hoping for a trpoical system for waves is not going to cause one to form or make a turn directly at the coast. We had all seen storm damage from Gloria and winter storm damage. I was not around there for Sandy but it leveled my childhood stomping grounds to nearly unrecognizable status.

My friends who stayed and still surf and own property there are still a bit bothered by the juxtaposition of wishing for and dreading the tropical systems as they have the potential to give so much pleasure, and so much pain.

Close to 40 years after I learned to surf, none of my friends whom I learned to surf with, has stopped doing so. I am the only surfbum who discarded the ideas of responsibility, wife, 2.35 kids and a dog, white picket fences, wage$lave, never being 'right'.

I am good with just the dog, and the freedom to surf when I want, when its good, and tropical systems even in an ocean basis that cannot possibly send me any wave action, still get me all excited.

A good storm can remind a person how completely insignificant they themselves are, and in this day and age where everything is ME ME first and for most meeeeeeee! , i think I humbling by mother nature is in order.

But 185mph winds for 18 hours in the Bahamas is likely quite unpleasant.

There are some people scared for their lives right now, others fighting for them, and no doubt, some who have lost that battle.

Think about that for a bit, safely behind your laptop or phone.
[-] The following 2 users say Thank You to sternwake for this post:
  • Scott7022 (09-02-2019), Texjbird (09-02-2019)
Well said.

Mother Nature has tried really hard to kill me three times. Gaya has been unsuccessful or spared me last minute. Still we all going to go and being off'd by the baddest bitch on our little blue globe ain't the worst way to go. Could stroke out in the bathtub brushing your teeth with a basket full of dreams and back pocket full of excuses about why you never.

Cue Wagner! And " set controls for the heart of the sun."
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Stay Tuned

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