08-31-2019, 03:43 PM
The latest official forecast has it turning N then NE well before reaching florida than mostly parallelling the coast offshore enough upto the OBX where it gets close.
This turn is due to a predicted trough reaching down from Appalachia to grab it and sling it north then north east while the High pressure north and east of it continues to fade.
2 of the three hurricane hunter planes which go and collect data from around the storm are out of commission with busted windshields, and as a result only one plane is flying, and there is less data collected less often from around the storm than there should be for a CAt 5 on course and relatively close to the mainland USA
The remaining viable hurricane hunter plane near the storm right now, and not long ago it dropped a dropsonde north of the storm and found higher than expected pressures, this high pressure which has turned it to the west and increased its forward speed slightly, can now likely force it west longer and slightly faster, meaning that turn which the latest NHC track has it about 85miles offshore, could happen much closer to the coast, IF, it happens.
Since the latest official forecast came out 1.5 hours ago, making the next one 6.5 hours away, there could be a whole bunch of false relief going on on the east coast of Florida right now. If it continued west for 72 more hours at current rate it would eb very close to the florida coast , but with the new readings of the air recon hurricane hunter planes it is expected the storm will pick up speed slightly.
The weak predicted and yet to occur to developing trough reaching down to lift it N then NE out to sea also has to occur for the official track centerline to be remotely valid
I think the latest official NHC 'safely out to sea' track is irresponsible in light of lacking Data, and the fact that a strong ass storm is going to be in extremely weak steering currents. Sure the cone of uncertainty still covers most of Florida but 3/4 of the people who were freaking out yesterday, are getting drunk now thinking they are safe, my sister among them.
This Effer can still go anywhere it damn well pleases, and it either is or is on the verge of a CAT 5 storm at the moment. A few MPH hardly makes much difference, 150mph currently makes it a cat 4, vs 156mph for a cat 5.
Its right there with hotter water ahead of it and incomplete data entered into the models that predict its track and lacking conclusive data besides satellite appearance on the last 5pm ATL update to call it a cat 5, due to 2 of those 3 hurricane hunter planes being out of commission.
If the 11Pm AST official update moves the center of the track back over the coastline, will the partyiers drink heavier or lay off sober up?
Right, they wont even know until the morning, late morning that things have changed.
This turn is due to a predicted trough reaching down from Appalachia to grab it and sling it north then north east while the High pressure north and east of it continues to fade.
2 of the three hurricane hunter planes which go and collect data from around the storm are out of commission with busted windshields, and as a result only one plane is flying, and there is less data collected less often from around the storm than there should be for a CAt 5 on course and relatively close to the mainland USA
The remaining viable hurricane hunter plane near the storm right now, and not long ago it dropped a dropsonde north of the storm and found higher than expected pressures, this high pressure which has turned it to the west and increased its forward speed slightly, can now likely force it west longer and slightly faster, meaning that turn which the latest NHC track has it about 85miles offshore, could happen much closer to the coast, IF, it happens.
Since the latest official forecast came out 1.5 hours ago, making the next one 6.5 hours away, there could be a whole bunch of false relief going on on the east coast of Florida right now. If it continued west for 72 more hours at current rate it would eb very close to the florida coast , but with the new readings of the air recon hurricane hunter planes it is expected the storm will pick up speed slightly.
The weak predicted and yet to occur to developing trough reaching down to lift it N then NE out to sea also has to occur for the official track centerline to be remotely valid
I think the latest official NHC 'safely out to sea' track is irresponsible in light of lacking Data, and the fact that a strong ass storm is going to be in extremely weak steering currents. Sure the cone of uncertainty still covers most of Florida but 3/4 of the people who were freaking out yesterday, are getting drunk now thinking they are safe, my sister among them.
This Effer can still go anywhere it damn well pleases, and it either is or is on the verge of a CAT 5 storm at the moment. A few MPH hardly makes much difference, 150mph currently makes it a cat 4, vs 156mph for a cat 5.
Its right there with hotter water ahead of it and incomplete data entered into the models that predict its track and lacking conclusive data besides satellite appearance on the last 5pm ATL update to call it a cat 5, due to 2 of those 3 hurricane hunter planes being out of commission.
If the 11Pm AST official update moves the center of the track back over the coastline, will the partyiers drink heavier or lay off sober up?
Right, they wont even know until the morning, late morning that things have changed.